The August Crop Manufacturing report launched lately by USDA-NASS included forecasts for hay manufacturing in chosen states and the U.S. Complete manufacturing of alfalfa hay in 2022 is forecast at 49.1 million tons, down 0.3 p.c from 2021 ranges and 13.6 p.c beneath the ten-year common from 2011-2020. All different hay manufacturing for 2022 is forecast at 67.7 million tons, down 4.6 p.c yr over yr and down 7.4 p.c from the ten-year common. Complete 2022 U.S. hay manufacturing is forecast at 116.8 million tons, down 2.9 p.c from one yr in the past and down 10.1 p.c from the 2011-2020 common. Alfalfa and different hay costs are forecast at file ranges in 2022.
Drought lowered hay manufacturing in 2021 with continued impacts in 2022. Could 1 hay shares had been down 6.9 p.c yr over yr however had been down 16.9 p.c from the 2011-2020 common.The full hay provide for the 2022-2023 hay crop yr (Could-April) is the sum of Could 1 (starting) hay shares and 2022 hay manufacturing. The full hay provide is projected to be down 3.4 p.c yr over yr and is down 11.0 p.c from the ten-year common (Desk 1).
Desk 1. Could 1 Hay Shares, Hay Manufacturing and Complete Hay Provide,
Prime Ten States and U.S., 2022.
^Forecast; USDA-NASS, Crop Manufacturing, August 2022
Amongst six of the highest ten hay states, both lowered Could 1 shares or lowered 2022 hay manufacturing or each are contributing to vital reductions in hay provides (Desk 1). Low Could 1 shares displays carryover drought impacts from 2021. Decreased 2022 hay manufacturing is the results of drought and/or excessive enter prices together with fertilizer and gasoline.The results are cumulative.
For instance, in Texas, which had comparatively much less drought 2021, Could 1 shares had been up 33.3 p.c yr over yr however a 28.7 p.c lower in hay manufacturing this yr ends in a 22.5 p.c discount in 2022 hay provide. Nebraska is in the same state of affairs.In distinction, South Dakota had extreme drought in 2021 resulting in a 50.5 p.c lower in Could 1 2022 shares.
South Dakota is seeing a 65.5 p.c yr over yr enhance in hay manufacturing in 2022.Nevertheless, due to drought final yr, complete 2022 hay provide is up simply 17.4 p.c yr over yr in comparison with the 32-year low in 2021. Montana, like South Dakota, can be seeing restoration in hay manufacturing in 2022 (from drought-reduced manufacturing final yr), up 13.3 p.c yr over yr.
Nevertheless, severely lowered carryover from final yr signifies that complete Montana hay provides are down 0.9 p.c from final yr and are on the lowest degree since 1989.Oklahoma had each lowered Could 1 shares and lowered hay manufacturing in 2022 resulting in a 17.2 p.c discount in 2022 hay provides and the bottom hay provide since 2012. In Missouri and Kentucky, the place drought has not been an element, lowered 2022 hay manufacturing is probably going the results of excessive fertilizer costs and lowered enter use.
Eight of the highest ten hay states are additionally high ten beef cow states together with Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Kansas, Montana and Kentucky. These eight states had 15.7 million beef cows on January 1, 2022. The opposite two, California and Idaho, are the primary and three dairy cow states, respectively.
With the rising season winding down amid persevering with drought, the 2022 hay provide knowledge illustrate why a lot herd liquidation has occurred this yr. It additionally speaks to the persevering with challenges that cattle producers will face to get by means of the winter earlier than the 2023 rising season might present the following alternative for improved forage circumstances.
Supply: Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State College, who’s solely chargeable for the knowledge supplied and is wholly owned by the supply. Informa Enterprise Media and all its subsidiaries should not chargeable for any of the content material contained on this info asset.